Editor's Note: This analysis was originally published as a stock note by Morningstar Equity Research.
Key Morningstar Metrics for Novo Nordisk
- Fair Value Estimate: USD $89
- Morningstar Rating: ★★★★
- Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: Wide
- Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: High
CEO departure highlights challenges as Novo Nordisk navigates obesity market pressures and competition
Novo Nordisk CEO Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen will step down as part of an accelerated leadership transition. Former CEO Lars Rebien Sørensen (current chair of the parent company and majority shareholder, the Novo Nordisk Foundation) will join the Novo Nordisk board.
Why it matters: Jørgensen has been CEO since 2017, overseeing a period of dramatic share price increases due to the success of the firm’s GLP-1 therapy, semaglutide, followed by pressure on the shares since mid-2024 as a result of pipeline setbacks and competition from Eli Lilly.
- Leadership transitions appear to be increasing in the healthcare sector, likely driven by intense pressure to maintain growth while preparing for potential disruptions due to US policy changes ranging from tariffs and price controls to research funding.
- Novo’s ability to grow through the rest of the decade will also depend on its navigation of pharmacy benefit manager negotiations and Food and Drug Administration interactions as well as complex, newer US market dynamics, like the direct-to-patient sales channel for obesity drugs and Medicare negotiation for semaglutide.
The bottom line: We’re maintaining our DKK 640/USD $89 fair value estimate for Novo Nordisk, as we think our current valuation accounts for industry pricing pressure, market share loss to Lilly, and headwinds to semaglutide from Medicare negotiation (2027) and patent loss (2032).
- Novo’s record of innovation helped it maintain insulin market leadership over decades, and innovation in GLP-1 and potential amylin combinations supports its wide moat.
- Novo has less of a record in acquiring pipeline candidates to supplement internal innovation, although we’re encouraged by its recent focus on novel oral drug candidates in the cardiometabolic space.
Between the lines: Despite its history of choosing long-tenured Novo Nordisk executives for the top spot, we think the board could look externally and will prioritize an understanding of US market dynamics in its new leader.
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